Executive Overview
Sub-Saharan Africa’s offshore energy landscape is on the cusp of a major transformation. According to data and analysis from Welligence Energy Analytics, the region’s deepwater production is projected to surge by more than 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) by 2035. However, unlocking this vast hydrocarbon wealth depends on a critical pipeline of capital-intensive projects. The final investment decisions (FIDs) scheduled for 2026 and 2027 will serve as the ultimate gatekeepers for this next wave of African offshore production.
Over the past decade, deepwater exploration in Sub-Saharan Africa has faced severe headwinds, including regulatory bottlenecks, fiscal uncertainty, and intense global competition for capital among International Oil Companies (IOCs) prioritizing quick-return shale plays or low-carbon transition assets. Yet, the tide is turning. High-profile discoveries in frontier basins like Namibia’s Orange Basin, combined with mature-basin optimization in Angola and Nigeria, have revitalized corporate appetite.
To bring these multi-billion-dollar developments online by the turn of the decade, operators are navigating complex partnership restructurings, geopolitical shifts, and updated domestic fiscal incentives. The coming years will determine whether Sub-Saharan Africa solidifies its position as a global deepwater heavyweight or remains constrained by regulatory delays and structural inefficiencies.
Detailed Chronology of Key Milestones and FIDs (2024–2030+)
The roadmap to 1 million boe/d is defined by a sequence of project milestones, sanctions, and strategic realignments across several key maritime jurisdictions:
[Late January 2024] ──> Equatorial Guinea & Chevron sign Aseng Gas Blowdown project
[May 2024] ──> Eni greenlights Phase 3 of the Baleine offshore project (Côte d'Ivoire)
[June 2024] ──> Azule Energy sanctions Greater PAJ project (Angola) after Equinor's U-turn
[Late 2024 (Est.)] ──> Imminent FID targeted for TotalEnergies' Venus project (Namibia)
[Late 2024 (Est.)] ──> Shell's Bonga Southwest/Aparo (BSWAP) targets FID in Nigeria
[2027 (Projected)] ──> ExxonMobil's Owowo and TotalEnergies' Preowei FIDs expected to slip
[2028] ──> Expected start of production for Aseng Gas Blowdown
[2029] ──> Expected first oil for Angola's Greater PAJ project
[End of Decade] ──> Expected peak production for Baleine Phase 31. Late January 2024: Equatorial Guinea and Chevron Sign Off on Aseng Gas Blowdown
Equatorial Guinea’s Ministry of Mines and Hydrocarbons, alongside operator Chevron, executed the formal agreement for the Aseng Gas blowdown project on Block I. This project is a critical element of Equatorial Guinea’s broader Gas Mega Hub (GMH) strategy, designed to monetize approximately 1 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas from the Aseng field.
2. May 2024: Eni Greenlights Baleine Phase 3 (Côte d’Ivoire)
Following the rapid execution of Phases 1 and 2, Italian major Eni approved the full-field Phase 3 development of the Baleine project offshore Côte d’Ivoire. This fast-track development has redefined deepwater execution speeds in West Africa, with production from Phase 3 scheduled to scale up rapidly toward the end of the decade.
3. June 2024: Azule Energy Sanctions Greater PAJ (Angola)
Azule Energy (the 50/50 joint venture between bp and Eni) officially sanctioned the Greater PAJ project on Blocks 31 and 31/21. The project experienced minor delays earlier in the year, largely due to Norwegian state-backed major Equinor’s initial decision to divest its stakes in the blocks.
In a notable strategic shift, Equinor reversed its decision, pulled the assets from the market, and doubled down on the development, clearing the path for the June sanction. First oil is officially targeted for 2029.
4. Late 2024 (Imminent): TotalEnergies’ Venus Project (Namibia)
Located in the prolific Orange Basin on Block PEL 56, the ultra-deepwater Venus oil and gas project remains on track for sanction before the end of the year. TotalEnergies has completed extensive appraisal drilling and front-end engineering and design (FEED) work, making project sanction highly imminent.
5. Late 2024 (Targeted): Shell’s Bonga Southwest/Aparo (Nigeria)
Subject to ongoing cost-optimization exercises, Shell’s massive Bonga Southwest/Aparo (BSWAP) project is positioned for a potential FID by the end of 2024. The project has been bolstered by targeted, time-bound fiscal incentives granted by the Nigerian government to stimulate offshore investment.
6. 2027 (Projected Slippage): ExxonMobil’s Owowo and TotalEnergies’ Preowei (Nigeria)
Initial timelines for ExxonMobil’s Owowo (OML 139/OML 154) and TotalEnergies’ Preowei developments have shifted. Analysts project that FIDs for both deepwater assets will slip into 2027 due to ongoing redesigns, commercial restructuring, and competing internal capital allocations.
Supporting Context & Regional Market Metrics
The geographical distribution of these deepwater assets highlights a shift from traditional heavyweights like Nigeria and Angola to emerging frontiers like Namibia and Côte d’Ivoire.
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ KEY DEEPWATER PROJECT METRICS AT A GLANCE │
├──────────────────────┬──────────────────────┬───────────────────────────────┤
│ Project / Asset │ Country │ Key Volume / Capacity Metric │
├──────────────────────┼──────────────────────┼───────────────────────────────┤
│ Aseng Gas Blowdown │ Equatorial Guinea │ ~1 Tcf gas monetized │
│ Baleine Phase 3 │ Côte d'Ivoire │ 150,000 bbl/d; 200 MMcf/d gas │
│ Greater PAJ │ Angola │ ~250 MMbbl recoverable oil │
│ Greater PAJ (Peak) │ Angola │ ~95,000 bbl/d peak oil │
│ Pecan (Lukoil Stake) │ Ghana │ 38% non-operated interest │
└──────────────────────┴──────────────────────┴───────────────────────────────┘Equatorial Guinea: Keeping the Punta Europa LNG Plant Alive
The Aseng Gas blowdown project is crucial for Equatorial Guinea’s domestic economy. As the mature Alba gas field experiences natural declines, the state-of-the-art Punta Europa Liquefied Natural Gas (EG LNG) facility has faced underutilization.
Monetizing the 1 Tcf of gas from Block I via the Aseng blowdown will backfill the facility, preserving Equatorial Guinea’s status as a key regional gas exporter. First gas from this development is expected to flow in 2028, acting as a bridge while the country seeks to develop broader cross-border gas links with Cameroon and Nigeria.
Côte d’Ivoire: Eni’s Fast-Track Masterclass
Eni’s Baleine field represents the largest commercial discovery in Côte d’Ivoire’s sedimentary basin. The Phase 3 development will scale up the field’s overall capacity dramatically:
- Crude Oil Production: Increasing from approximately 60,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) to 150,000 bbl/d.
- Associated Gas Production: Rising from 80 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) to 200 MMcf/d.
By integrating carbon capture and storage (CCS) and highly efficient gas-to-power infrastructure, Eni aims to make Baleine Africa’s first net-zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions development, demonstrating that deepwater projects can align with modern ESG standards.
Angola: Azule Energy Rejuvenates Block 31
Angola has struggled with declining output from its mature offshore fields. The sanctioning of the Greater PAJ project is a major victory for the country’s national concessionaire, ANPG.
- Recoverable Reserves: Estimated at 250 million barrels (MMbbl) of oil.
- Scope of Development: The project will tie back seven subsea fields spread across Blocks 31 and 31/21 to an existing Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel.
- Production Peak: Expected to reach 95,000 bbl/d following first oil in 2029, providing a much-needed boost to Angola’s crude export revenues.
Nigeria: A Tale of Two Strategies
Nigeria’s deepwater sector remains highly lucrative but commercially complex. To kickstart stalled developments, the government has introduced time-bound fiscal incentives under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) framework.
- Bonga Southwest/Aparo (BSWAP): Shell is actively pursuing cost-optimization strategies to make this massive project commercially viable under current market conditions.
- Owowo (OML 139/OML 154): ExxonMobil has altered its development concept. Initially, the plan focused on 100% gas reinjection to maximize oil recovery. The updated design now aims to monetize a portion of the associated gas via the Nigeria LNG (NLNG) complex on Bonny Island. However, progress has slowed as partner TotalEnergies prioritizes the cheaper Usan infill project (sanctioned in July) over the high-capex Owowo greenfield.
- Preowei: TotalEnergies is deferring FID to conduct further exploration and appraisal drilling around the existing Akpo and Egina hubs. The operator hopes to discover additional volumes to support a larger, more cost-effective clustered subsea tie-back rather than a standalone facility.
Ghana: Pecan Project Plagued by Geopolitical Stasis
In Ghana, the Deepwater Tano Cape Three Points (Pecan) project, operated by Norway’s Aker Energy, will not reach FID this year despite having completed its FEED studies and finalized major subsea and drilling contracts.
┌────────────────────────┐
│ Pecan Project Stasis │
└───────────┬────────────┘
│
┌─────────────────┴─────────────────┐
▼ ▼
┌────────────────────────┐ ┌────────────────────────┐
│ Geopolitical Hurdles │ │ Partnership Restruct. │
└────────┬───────────────┘ └────────┬───────────────┘
│ │
▼ ▼
Lukoil (38% stake) Ghana Gov (GNPC)
seeks exit due to considers buying stake;
international sanctions. Shell & Eni in talks.The primary obstacle is geopolitical. Russian oil firm Lukoil holds a 38% non-operated stake in the project. Due to international sanctions, Lukoil has sought to divest its international portfolio. Although an agreement was announced in January to sell its non-Kazakhstan assets to the Carlyle Group, regulatory and compliance hurdles have delayed the transaction.
In response, the Ghanaian government is considering acquiring the stake directly via the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC). Concurrently, Shell and Eni are reportedly in independent discussions to enter the project. Shell is also negotiating entry into the adjacent South Deepwater Tano (SDWT) block. Until these partnership issues are resolved, Pecan remains in regulatory stasis.
Industry Insights: The Operator’s Dilemma
The investment landscape in Sub-Saharan Africa is being reshaped by disciplined capital allocation among major international operators. Welligence Energy Analytics’ specialists highlight these shifting dynamics:
David Thomson, Vice President of Sub-Saharan Africa at Welligence:
*"The decisions we are seeing from the majors reflect a fundamental shift in global upstream strategies. Operators are no longer willing to tolerate long regulatory delays or unfavorable fiscal regimes when they have highly competitive options in the US Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, and Guyana.
Equinor’s brief exit and subsequent return to Angola’s Block 31 highlights this tension—companies are looking for maximum value and will aggressively optimize their portfolios. For countries like Nigeria and Ghana, the message is clear: fiscal terms must be competitive, transparent, and stable to attract the massive capital required for deepwater developments."*
Lauren Hunter, Sub-Saharan Africa Analyst at Welligence:
*"We are seeing a clear divergence between fast-track, infrastructure-led developments and complex greenfield projects. Eni’s success with Baleine in Côte d’Ivoire demonstrates that when governments and operators align to streamline approvals, deepwater projects can move from discovery to production in record time.
Conversely, when geopolitical complications or partnership disputes arise—as we see with Lukoil’s position in Ghana’s Pecan project—even technically mature assets can stall indefinitely. To unlock the next million barrels of oil equivalent, regional regulators must become more agile in resolving corporate and legal bottlenecks."*
Future Outlook: Navigating the 2026–2027 FID Bottleneck
The trajectory of Sub-Saharan Africa’s deepwater production up to 2035 depends heavily on the decisions made during the 2026–2027 window. If key projects like Owowo, Preowei, and Pecan successfully secure FIDs during this timeframe, the region is well-positioned to add over 1 million boe/d of high-margin, lower-carbon-intensity production by 2035.
Key Factors Shaping the Investment Landscape:
- The Rise of Gas Monetization: The transition from gas reinjection and flaring to active monetization is a defining trend. Projects like Equatorial Guinea’s Aseng Gas blowdown and Nigeria’s redesigned Owowo development show that operators are prioritizing gas export and domestic gas-to-power markets. This shift supports global energy security while helping regional governments meet domestic electrification goals.
- Infrastructure-Led Exploration (ILX) and Subsea Tie-Backs: To mitigate risk and lower capital intensity, operators are increasingly favoring tie-backs to existing infrastructure over standalone greenfield developments. TotalEnergies’ approach to Preowei (evaluating tie-back options to Akpo/Egina) and Azule Energy’s strategy for Greater PAJ reflect this trend. ILX offers quicker paybacks, lower carbon footprints, and reduced upfront capital requirements.
- Frontier Basin Competition: The rapid rise of Namibia’s Orange Basin has altered the regional investment dynamic. The sheer scale and reservoir quality of discoveries like Venus and Graff are drawing capital away from more mature jurisdictions. Traditional producers like Nigeria and Angola must continually refine their fiscal policies to remain competitive against these emerging, highly attractive frontier basins.
Ultimately, Sub-Saharan Africa’s deepwater sector holds vast resource potential. Transforming these offshore discoveries into active, revenue-generating production assets will require closer collaboration between state governments, national oil companies, and international majors to establish stable, competitive investment environments.
